Dec 09, 2025
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BAR HARBOR—Cottage Street was a mess, Monday, with traffic blocked, wires down, and a dump truck hanging like a brownish, oversized Christmas ornament, but inside the town’s municipal building, the Bar Harbor Harbor Committee received news that could reshape Bar Harbor’s waterfront for decades: sea levels here are rising, which might mean that there are local vulnerabilities that need to be addressed.
“Sea level rise is likely accelerating in Bar Harbor,” University of Maine graduate student Ella Boxall told the committee members. “We expect about 15-20 centimeters of sea level rise by 2055 based on the linear model with some acceleration expected.”
Twenty centimeters is equivalent to approximately 6.3 inches.
This is important because the town’s land use ordinance that dictates things such as maximum pier length doesn’t take into account changing averages of high and low tides and how that might damage a pier, a road, a shore path.
Boxall has been collecting hourly tide data from Bar Harbor and created a yearly tide average for every hour rather than using one data point per year, which allowed for more precise data and projects than an earlier Maine survey, she believes.
She used the MATLAB curvefitter tool, which minimizes the errors between models and observations.
So far, Boxall’s data shows that sea levels have risen about 16 cm in Bar Harbor since data collection began in 1947.
Sea level is projected to increase by 7.3 centimeters given the linear scenario, by 2055. The linear slope over the past 25 years equates to sea level rise of about 23 centimeters by 2055.
“Ella has been doing a lot of great work for us, especially next to Kaitlyn,” Harbor Committee Chair Micala Delepierre said of Boxall’s work with Vice Chair Kaitlyn Mullen.
Boxall has also been working on highest annual tide and king tide each year.
“This will allow me to determine the magnitude of the king tides,” and also the frequency of those, she said.
Boxall suggested the town check in with the projections each year, running the script she created to do so.
Her estimations of future sea level rise varies a bit from the Maine Geological Survey, which evaluated seal level rise on the same timescale with a slightly different rate due to the difference in data. The state used one point per year while she used hourly data.
Though her calculations show a 16 centimeter rise by 2055, she suggested the town prepare for 20 centimeters.
“That seems like quite a large increase,” committee member Robert Garland said.
The question then becomes when regulating structures on the shore or that extend out to the water, how does this data impact the current standards and should those standards be updated by the town.
“Preparing for the worst is always the most effective, but it’s often expensive,” Boxall said.
Previously, Catherine Schmitt, science communication specialist for the Schoodic Institute and Acadia National Park, has said that the sea level has risen eight inches in the past 74 years and that the rate of that rise is accelerating, doubling at 4.5 millimeters a year in the last 20 years as opposed to the 2.3 millimeter rate between 1950 to 2000.
Since 2020, The Landscape of Change (a partnership among the MDI Historical Society, Oceanarium, and Schoodic Institute) has been trying to illustrate sea level rise to people who live and work on the island using “history, science, and imagination to document and communicate the scope, speed, and scale of climate change on MDI.”
At the harbor committee meeting, Delepierre asked about how to incorporate a potential increase in big storms and how the town should prepare.
For some members, there have been bigger storms than the January 2024 storms that caused millions in infrastructure damage on Mount Desert Island, devastating both the Shore Path in Bar Harbor and the Seawall Road in Southwest Harbor as well as causing a lot of damage at the Northeast Harbor marina and other coastal points.
In January 2024, a duo of storms smashed into Maine, damaging its coast, causing severe flooding and as Jacqueline Weaver wrote for the Maine Monitor, “The Maine Coast Fishermen’s Association estimated at least 60 percent of Maine’s working waterfronts were heavily damaged or destroyed in the January storms.”
Thousands lost power. People lost businesses and wharfs. Communities lost roads. Acadia National Park sustained massive damage. Water rushed up onto the Bar Harbor Shore Path, Ells Pier and along West Street.
“We had several big storms in ‘78,” committee member Jon Carter said. “I’ve actually seen more water over the town pier in years gone by and those facilities never got damaged.”
Boxall said damage also depends on the velocity of the tides.
“Back in the 70s we had big tides, but we didn’t call them king tides, but we didn’t have anywhere near the numbers we see now,” Carter said.
It used to be two big tides a month, now, he said, there are four, and they are lucky to have two average tides a month.
“It used to be you looked at the Breakwater and there’s a big rock on the breakwater. If the tide was down to the big rock that was a big tide. Now, it’s 30 yards east of the rock on a big tide. That’s how things have changed. We seem to have one big tide after another now. We’re just coming off a 13 footer and we’re set up for another one coming right along.”
That’s what she’s looking for and hopes to be able to suggest.
Committee members asked about low tides, too, which she hadn’t predicted.
“Boats have been hitting rocks that they never have before,” committee member Pancho Cole said.
Carter said a couple of decades ago, people wanted to build a harbormaster office on the northeast corner of Ells Pier in downtown Bar Harbor. They hadn’t had any storms in a while, but he’d remembered them, and warned them not to.
“I’ve seen this whole pier underwater several times,” Carter said. But the last storm in January 2024 was different. “I’ve never seen the surge go up the Shore Path the way it did.”
“I do think we’re seeing an increase in the strength of storms,” Boxall said.
Delepierre said that part of the context is that the low tides are getting lower, which also impacts the town’s piers and docks.
What’s potentially causing the changes that are making low tides lower was quickly discussed.
“It could be big things happening just in the Gulf of Maine in general,” Boxall suggested.
The back of the bay shows more impact with the low tide, Mullen said, has more of a movable and muddy bottom.
They lost a lot of puffin habitat, Mullen said. “We are clearly seeing some smaller changes in movable areas.”
Currents might also be impacting it or overall temperature.
HARBORMASTER UPDATE
At the beginning of the meeting, Harbormaster Chris Wharff said that the SHIP Grant was approved for the new ADA accessible gangway for Ells Pier, which he hopes will be done by spring.
“The ferry terminal project is still moving along,” Wharff said. “They’ve started some of their initial work.”
There has been a drone survey, topographic survey, and potentially a hydrographic survey by GEI for the ferry terminal, potential town marina.
“It won’t be done until next spring or summer,” Wharff said.
Bids have also come back on a hydraulic hoist.
“That will be done by spring, too,” Wharff said.
The town’s breakwater project will be put out to bid. Contractors have reviewed the site.
There are no set dates yet from American Cruise Line visits for the 2026 cruise season. The town manager will then put in the permits for each visit.
DELEPIERRE STEPPING DOWN
Delepierre is stepping down from the committee and taking time away to focus on ongoing health concerns. She hopes to continue to interact with the committee, especially with projects like Boxall’s.
The committee will likely elect a new chair at its next meeting.
LINKS TO LEARN MORE
The Bar Harbor Harbor Committee page
“Massive destruction on a proportion never seen”
It’s Hard to Fix What You Don’t See
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